Cheltenham Festival 2017: Is there value in backing favourites this week? We examine the evidence

The Cheltenham Preview circuit is a quirky set of stopping points on the annual journey to horseracing nirvana.

The format familiar; an MC, a trainer, a local know it all/journalist and a snake oil salesman from a bookmaker all take to the stage of a dingy function room. They have assembled to bestow their collective wisdom upon the gathered masses. The punters want value. The panel want to get home before the drink takes complete hold of the crowd, and the bookies’ rep wants to avoid a lynching for not doubling the price on a yoke the trainer has just told everyone has been stopped for two years to get a mark for the Gold Cup. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfF_MdzYCOk Value, though, is what these hardened punting souls want for nourishment. Value is not picking the “fav” in every race, is it? That’s for mugs, those who have never had a bet restricted or never felt compelled to call a radio phone-in about a bookies’ terms and conditions. The 2016 Cheltenham Festival presented those punters with an alternative fact; backing the favourite blind actually did count as value, at least in the non-handicaps. In those eighteen races the favourites finished 21114 on Tuesday, 23227 on Wednesday, a perfect 1111 on Thursday and 1P11 on Friday. Ten from eighteen is quite an incredible return for fans of short priced runners, and only three failed to finish on the podium. During the previous two Festivals there were seven winning market leaders from seventeen races in 2015 (The Dawn Run Mares’ Novice hurdle was added in 2016) and just five in 2014. The festival has always been a battle between punters and bookies but now it’s just as gladiatorial between rival bookmakers for punters ‘ custom. This ensures that many losing bets are not losers at all but refunds, or at least partial refunds as free bets. This ensures that many losing bets are not losers at all but refunds, or at least partial refunds as free bets. Generally, punters got some form of concession if horses they backed finished placed. So depending on where the “mugs” did their business, and they got four places in the National Hunt chase (won by the ante-post favourite), then the bumper may have been the only non-handicap race they didn’t collect on. Absolute mugs. The handicaps are of course a different story. This is where the judges, the shrewdies, the insomniac students of the formbook try to make their edge count. Ten handicaps in all, no winning market leader in 2016, only two of those ten even placed and it was Friday by the time that happened. The relentless sifting hopefully returning some gold nuggets for the form gurus, Meanwhile, our dedicated follower of favourites took one look, thought it’s too tricky, I’m off to the pub and throws one of his free bets at Paul Nicholls in the Fred Winter, thinking Surely he’ll have one winner. The 2017 quest for festival winners will mean more study and more revision to uncover profitable trends (Unowhatimeanharry, above), spot that lenient handicap mark (Peregrine Run), and decipher the worth of collateral form (Consul de Thaix). We should all have studied this hard at school, but then again my school played the Gold Cup commentary over the tannoy and gave us the week off for Punchestown. We should all have studied this hard at school, but then again my school played the Gold Cup commentary over the tannoy and gave us the week off for Punchestown. Aside from (hopefully) making a few quid on the track, you can take advantage of BetFred's special offer of betting £10 and in return getting £60 in free bets and Casino bonuses. Full details are here.